Which is why I was nervous. This game couldn't have looked more like a suspicious-banana-skin-type-slip-up if it had run around with naked with a Groucho Marks moustache on.
Fulham haven't beaten Arsenal since New Years Day in 1966. Equally, Fulham have only taken one point from a possible 30 in their ten Premiership meetings with Arsenal.
Historically, this has been a pretty cofortable match for Arsenal but last night highlighted a significant number of the club's problems. More on this later.
In these ten games Arsenal have scored 24 goals to Fulham's four.
This season Arsenal's problem has been scoring goals and up until the Bolton debacle the defense has been pretty good. Last night there was little attcking bite and poor defending.
Last season Arsenal won twice, with scorelines of 4-0 and 4-1.
A forty year win streak against a team is certainly impressive but I don't see these statistics having any impact on this fixture.
Arsenal are struggling in away games winning three and losing three, scoring eight goals and conceding six.
Fulham have won three, drew one and lost three at the Cottage, scoring five goals but conceding only six.
So the records look reasonably well matched. I think there'll only be one goal in it.
What Arsenal Need: Arsenal need a win away from home, the three points are essential.
The way to secure the three points is as follows:
Do not let Fulham score first. Instead they concede within six minutes and then let another one in after 19 minutes. If Arsenal can't come back from one down, then two down is out of the question.
Defend set pieces well. McBride's goal was from a corner in similar circumstances to the goal against Bolton.
Ensure the Arsenal wingers maintain their width and get the full backs overlapping. The choice of full backs was poor, especially when Flamini had already declared he wouldn't play at left back. Hleb and Rosicky are the worst culprits for failing to use the width of the pitch.
Attack with pace on the counter-attack. I didn't see the same enthusiasm and passion to attack as I would expect from an Arsenal team.
Get a bit of luck. No chance.
Things To Watch Out For: Keep an eye on the two players wide in the midfield. Arsenal struggle when players like Hleb and Rosicky come inside with the ball too often, taking away the natural width of the pitch. It's also important to see if the two full backs overlap the wide players effectively. When Arsenal struggle it is because they try to play the whole football match in the central third of the pitch.
The width issue, or lack of width issue is a fundamental flaw in the current Arsenal team and I can't see how the current squad could fulfill the need for proper wingers. Walcott will make a difference given twenty minutes at the end of a match but I'm not sure he's ready to play for 90 or even 70 minutes just yet.
Hopes For The Match: I hope Wenger fires up the team before kick off. I want to see players desperate for a win, fighting for the common cause, but I will also be looking out for the senior players to display leadership to the youngsters.
The team didn't look particualry fired up or animated, which is confusing in a match of such importance. Every game is a cup final now if we are looking to secure a Champions League spot. There were some senior players on the pitch and at times I saw Henry praising a pass or a shot but due to Wenger's starting line up, half the team were youngsters. For example: Hoyte, Flamini, Senderos, Fabregas, Song and Fabregas is the only one who should ever start for Arsenal.
Team selection issues: For the first time this season I'm really having difficulty picking my starting eleven and the five players I'd sit on the bench. This is a problem that any manager with depth in his squad would face on a weekly basis, but it's not something that Arsenal have had to deal with yet this season.
Wenger obviously had different ideas about the importance of this match compared to the others that will follow. My difficulty in team selection was not who to rest but who's the best available player in each position
If Wenger was going to play a 4-4-2, I'd have an easier job because I'd play Henry and van Persie up front, with Ljungberg, Gilberto, Fabregas and Hleb across the midfield.
Ljungberg didn't even make the substitutes bench and Song played for the rested Fabregas. I dont't understand how Song gets a game ahead of Denilson or Baptista. If Wenger is struggling to find a defensive midfielder he could play Flamini there and put the young Traore at left back. At least he's a left back and at least he's left footed.
But knowing that Wenger favours the 4-5-1 the situation changes. The difficulty here is that van Persie should be on the pitch as he is a goal scorer and Arsenal need as many goal scorers on the pitch as possible. In contrast Ljungberg is not on goal scoring form this season but he is the better winger and the 4-5-1 needs players to stick to the sideline to provide width to the formation.
I was pleased to see van Persie continue his goal scoring form and now he's only one behind Henry. It was an excellent free-kick.
The only solution would be to play both, with Baptista or Flamini making way.
| My team selection for this game: Boy was I wrong? Henry van Persie, Ljungberg, Gilberto, Fabregas, Hleb Clichy, Senderos, Toure, Eboue Lehmann Subs: Almunia, Djourou, Walcott, Adebayor, Rosicky |
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Unavailable:
Gallas - Injured his quadriceps taking free kicks in training and will be out until the FC Porto game.
Diaby - On course to return in January after suffering a fracture-dislocated ankle last season.
Lauren - Still rehabilitating from a knee injury that has kept him out since January 21st.
Long-term issues: I'm looking forward to January when Lauren will be back. I think it would be good for Arsenal to have both Lauren and Eboue fighting it out for the starting right back spot. I appreciate that Hoyte has been filling in this far this season but I don't see him as a long term prospect, merely a good young squad player.
Lauren has been the only choice at right back for some years now and as a result of his knee injury he's been out for almost a year now. Fortunately for Arsenal the injury coincided with the emergence of Eboue, who has done a good job ever since. Lauren is the smarter player, the better defender and the stronger leader, but Eboue is the superior athlete and offers better options in attack. It's a tough choice but I welcome competition for places, as I detest a player who takes his place in the starting eleven for granted.
Prediction: Fulham 0 Arsenal 1
Score: Fulham 2 Arsenal 1
