Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Watford v. Arsenal - My predictions

Gut Feeling: As gut feelings go this is a gimmee. Watford have won once so far in the Premiership and it doesn't look like changing today. If they play a high line as they did at the Grove then things could get ugly, but the Gunners back line need to expect a deluge of long balls. If they cope with this, then Ashley Young looks to be the only real threat from the home side. Eventhough this young man has pace and unarguabe talent, I don't believe he'll be able to do much on his own and Arsenal should secure a comfortable win.

What Arsenal Need: Once again we need three points but we need to get through the match with no more injuries and no silly bookings. The Gunners need a strong and spirited performance, with commitment, focus and.... wait a minute I'm beginning to sould like Wenger here. In all seriousness, they need to defend well against set-pieces (particularly when Ashley Young is over the ball) and to work hard to control the ball and limit the barage of long balls the centre backs are inevitably going to suffer.

Things To Watch Out For: If Flamini plays I'll once again watch his performance with interest, as I'm not sure what his best position is. I presume Wenger sees him as a defensive midfielder but his surging runs into the box have exposed a different side to him and on the face of it, he's not strong enough to be the only defensive player in a midfield. I admire his passion and work ethic and obviously his recent goal scoring form has been a welcome surprise.

It seems to me that oh so often goalkeepers have the performance of a lifetime when they face the Gunners. I wouldn't be surprised if we see that today from the young Ben Foster, who is on loan from the Red Devils.

Hopes For The Match: If Walcott starts the match, I hope he puts in a good performance but he'll be going up against a defence that has conceded only seven goals at home all year. That's one better than the Arsenal defence!!! I'd be looking for him to put in a similar performance to his dynamic cameos when he comes on as a substitutes.

Once again (and I apologise for making this point for another time), I hope he Baptista gets himself into the match today. Word has it that Wenger will be starting him and at some point he's going to have to turn up. His display at Wigan was poor, as were his first touch, passing and dribbling. I'm probably in the minority here, but I do hope he establishes himself at Arsenal, but he's running out of time.

On a similar vein, it seems that Real Madrid have offered Baptista to Arsenal in a straight swap deal for Reyes. Fortunately, they said no and have sent the Spanish away to come up with a better offer. My only concern with any Reyes-Baptista swap is that it is not a like-for-like transaction. The big Brazilian offers no width and at present little pace and I still believe a Reyes-shaped void exists in the Arsenal squad.

Team Selection: Wenger has the luxury of two games in a row against teams at the foot of the table. Hopefully, he'll spread out the changes over the two games and not put one of the performances at risk by resting too many people at once.

I've suggested that Senderos plays in defence as I think Watford's long ball style will suit him and if Toure was going to be rested for any match I'd go for the Watford match rather that the Wenger-Pardew evening re-match. If this is the defence that starts the match it has an average age of about 21 and leadership will be required throughout.

I've predicted my starting eleven based on a 4-4-2 as I don't believe we need to go away to Vicarage Road and play a 4-5-1. Equally, I haven't started Flamini and I concede that Wenger may do so, but I'm not sure where he'd play the Frenchman.

My team selection for this game:

Adebayor, Baptista



Rosicky, Gilberto, Fabregas, Walcott



Clichy, Djourou, Senderos, Hoyte



Lehmann


Subs: Almunia, Toure, Hleb, Flamini, van Persie



Unavailable:
Eboue - Injured his ankle against Portsmouth and played on for a good few minutes before being substituted. He should be back within a week.

Ljungberg - Injured his hamstring against Portsmouth and will be out for another two weeks at least.

Gallas - Injured his quadriceps muscle (front of his thigh) taking free kicks in training and has been out for few weeks. He's not expected to be fit for another 10 days at least.

Henry - He has a low back injury which causes him pain down his sciatic nerve. We've been given no indication as to when he'll be back.

Lauren - He was supposed to feature in the midweek game at Anfield that was postponed due to fog. He's getting match fit slowly but surely and I expect to see him playing in the new year. He played for 70 minutes against a Vietnamese side last week and came through unscathed.

Diaby - On course to return to first team training in January. He suffered a fracture-dislocated ankle last season.

Long-term issues: I've been thinking about Ljungberg recently and I'm beginning to accept that he will need replacing soon. His versatility were of great benefit to Wenger and I feel that he needs to bring in another two-footed, pacey winger. At present I have no suggestions for the purchase, but I'll keep my eyes open. If he does get replaced it'll probably be from off the transfer-radar, like the purchases of Adebayor and Eboue.
Prediction: Watford 0 Arsenal 3