Saturday, January 13, 2007

Blackburn v Arsenal - Analysis of my predictions

Gut Feeling: Hell hath no fury like Blackburn scorned... well it sounds dramatic but you know what I mean. You can just imagine Mark Hughes headbutting the changing room walls as he fires up his team of assassins for this re-match. Savage and Neil don't need much to get them wound up but keep an eye out for some of the early tackles on Fabregas and Rosicky. Blackburn will be playing out of their skin to try and erase the memory of what could have been and what actually transpired in the 6-2 demolition. Its going to be a very competitive and hard fought match but I think Arsenal have the quality to take three points from this match.

It was always going to be the player that retaliated that was the one to get his marching orders. Savage is a tough competitor and I don't have a problem with that. What I do have a problem with is the play acting after Gilberto swung his leg at him. Either way, the Brazilian should have known better. He played straight into Savage's hands and that was what disappointed me most.

My other frustration with the game was the inconsistency of it all. Just think back to the following incidents. Savage has three swipes at Gilberto, two of which seemed to come after the whistle had been blown. Savage gets a yellow. Gilberto is hacked to the ground, retaliates, misses and gets a red. Tugay takes a ten yard run up on Fabregas and knocks him to the ground days after the ball has gone and gets a yellow. Are the crimes so dissimilar?


What Arsenal Need: Arsenal need to focus on a few things this evening.

Firstly, they need to defend well from set pieces. Blackburn will see them as excellent opportunities to put pressure on the back four and especially Lehmann, who at times looks dodgy when hassled on the goal line at corners.

Arsenal did well from set pieces and kept Lehmann from being hassled. Rob Styles spoke to a number of Blackburn players at corners and he seemed to be suggesting that they needed to be making a genuine play for the ball rather than trying to get in his way just to wind him up.

Arsenal need to show passion and commitment for the entirety of the game because its going to be a battle, on a wet pitch in blustery conditions... not usually the conditions that suit them. But these are exactly the matches they need to win to show that they have improved on last year.

I thought Arsenal showed almost superhuman effort tonight. They could have so easily capitulated, held their hands in the air and given up, with a ready made 'hard-done-by' excuse in the bag. But they didn't and it was the kind of performance that reminded me of a brave Arsenal victory at Anfield where van Bronckhurst had been sent off in the 2001-02 season. I was so proud of those guys this evening. It was as good a performance as any I've seen this year and against all the odds.

Things To Watch Out For: I'll be interested to see how the Gunners approach the match. As Wenger mentioned in the press conference, Arsenal are the most fouled team in the Premiership and this match will only swell those statistics. Blackburn will come out kicking and screaming and it remains to be seen if Rob Styles keep control of things.

Well there weren't too many fouls for Styles to deal with up until the sending off. He screwed that decision up and it seems as though the Brazilian will miss the games against the Red Devils, a trip down Seven Sisters Road and the visit of Manchester City. The sending off didn't cost Arsenal anything today but it may come Sunday as Gilberto is irreplaceable.

Hopes For The Match: As usual my hopes for the match are that the Gunners get through 90 minutes with no injuries and three points. It would be nice to see Senderos continue to improve. He really is a player that needs a run of games to get comfortable.

I thought he did well again. There was one slip-up but it didn't get punished, which was good.

Team Selection: I hope that Wenger plays a 4-4-2 formation as it really is the way forward for Arsenal. It gives Henry the opportunity to play his usual game and moves away from asking him to play up front on his own with his back to goal.

I thought Fabregas, Hleb and Rosicky were all excellent today. Their neat, intricate and imaginative passing is a delight to behold and they hardly gave a ball away all game, eventhough they were outnumbered three-to-one at times. It was a pleasure to watch.

My team selection for this game:

Henry, van Persie



Rosicky, Gilberto, Fabregas, Hleb



Clichy, Senderos, Toure, Hoyte



Lehmann


Subs: Almunia, Djourou, Baptista, Walcott, Adebayor


Unavailable: Gallas (thigh); Ljungberg (hamstring); Eboue (ankle).

Long-term issues: Isn't it a wonderful problem to have when you have a near-fully fit squad and you have players fighting for selection. Up front it seems that Arsenal now have an embarrassment of riches with Henry, van Perise, Adebayor and Baptista all worthy of a starting place.

When you have those four to choose from it doesn't bode well for Aliadiere and Bendtner does it? I personally see the wing as the place where Aliadiere could get some game time at Arsenal, that's where he did most of his damage in the annihilation of Liverpool earlier on in the week.

Across the midfield they actually pick themselves at the moment and if fit Rosicky, Gilberto, Fabregas and Hleb will start, but its good to see the likes of Diaby and Walcott on the sideline and ready to play if required.

Due to the suspension of the great Brazilian, Wenger will have to choose who to play in the defensive midfield position against the Red Devils. Diaby is probably three or four games short of being ready for such a mammoth challenge so I guess Flamini will be used.

In defence Wenger will not be able to call on either Gallas or Eboue and as such the back four pick themselves too. Traore looks like an exciting prospect at left back and I hope he will soon be pushing Clichy for playing time.

Prediction: Blackburn 1 Arsenal 2
Score: Blackburn 0 Arsenal 2