Thursday, January 25, 2007

Seven Sisters v. Arsenal - Analysis of my predictions

Gut Feeling: I think the young guns will get a result tonight, but it will be a tough match against a first string opposition. I have a feeling Arsenal will snatch a result in the last twenty minutes.

The young guns did snatch a result in the last twenty minutes, it was just that they had a two-goal mountain to climb. They showed character and confidence and were unlucky not to leave with a victory.

To be honest I was a little bit disappointed with the mix up that led to Arsenal conceding the first goal. It looked like Toure ducked out of the way of the ball, which was met by Berbatov, who headed it past Almunia. The Spanish goalkeeper looked furious and if my lip reading is accurate I saw him say "I said away!".


What Arsenal Need: In the semi-final first leg last year Arsenal failed to score and it was this that probably lost them the chance to reach the final. The young guns need at least one goal tonight but any more would be greatly appreciated.

Arsenal got two away goals last night and that will mean that Wenger will stick with his youngsters in the home leg next Wednesday. I cannot see them conceding two goals next week and for that reason I am confident they will be meeting Chelsea in the Carling Cup Final.

Things To Watch Out For: I'll be watching for the performances of the following players.

Baptista - I feel he has a real opportunity to assert himself at the club now that there is a space for a third striker. He needs to capitalise on the performance at Anfield and I'll be watching how well he works with Fabregas. If he makes good runs, the young Spaniard will find him and that could cause trouble for the home side.

In the first half he struggled at times and was unlucky to concede the own goal after Dawson jumped over the in swinging free kick. But once the game opened up he looked dangerous every time he got the ball. He made intelligent runs and took the scoring chances well. I feel he is slowly establishing himself in the side and a scoring replacement for van Persie is urgently required.

Aliadiere - I still see him as a winger, in the the same light as Reyes. I don't think he's really a striker, but I like his pace, his ability to use both feet and he can finish well. Arsenal need at least one more winger with only Rosicky, Hleb and Walcott fit, so he has a chance to create a niche for himself.

I thought he played well before his injury, but he was off the pitch when Arsenal took control of the match. Eboue made a significant impact on the game when he replaced Aliadiere and switched with Walcott to play on the right wing.

Walcott - He was quiet in the match at Anfield and I'm looking for a stronger performance from him tonight.

Once again he was quiet and seemed to run into trouble at times. On a number of occasions he should have passed the ball on after beating the first opponent, but he held onto the ball and subsequently lost possession. After making a significant impact at the start of the season Walcott seems to be struggling to establish himself.

Hopes For The Match: My only fear about fielding first team players in the Carling Cup is the risk they run of sustaining injury. I hope the whole squad gets through the match unscathed, but my main concern will be for Toure, Fabregas and Hleb.

I was right to fear the risk of injury in this game. At the final whistle Arsenal had injuries to Hleb, Eboue and Aliadiere. The injury to the young Frenchman is less critical, but the injuries to Wenger's first choice right back and right winger are significant. With Walcott underperforming, there is no real depth on the right wing as Ljungberg and van Persie are both out with injury. Other players that could fill in on the right wing are Aliadiere and Eboue, both of which are injured or Flamini who will play as a defensive midfileder in place of Gilberto. Wenger has a serious problem on his hands and will have to start Walcott on the right wing.

Team Selection: Arsenal.com identified the sixteen man squad that will travel down the Seven Sisters Road tonight. It includes 12 of the squad that walked away from Anfield with a 6-3 demolition with four additional players: Senderos, Eboue, Hleb and Flamini. The four new faces have replaced Lansbury, Song, Djourou and Connolly.

Wenger's squad selection makes interesting reading as it is not obvious who will start tonight's match. I have tried to keep the 'youthful' look of the team that have played in the matches against West Brom, Everton and Liverpool and only made changes to the team that won at Anfield where appropriate.

Almunia will start between the posts and I hope to see another assured display from him. He needs to take every opportunity to perform for the manager as Lehmann's future at the club is uncertain at present.

I see Senderos as a straight swap for Djourou in central defence. I'd keep Hoyte at right back and leave Eboue on the bench.

I had most difficulty selecting the midfield for this game. Looking back at the three previous Carling Cup games the midfield has always featured Denilson, Song and Walcott. So Denilson and Walcott are sure to start tonight. I see Diaby as a straight swap for Song and so he should continue his rehabilitation tonight in the centre of midfield. If Wenger thinks he is not ready to start, then Flamini will take his place.

The strike partnership will obviously remain changed after their performance against Liverpool. With Baptista and Aliadiere looking to push for more playing time in the first team after the devastating injury to van Persie, we should see strong performances from both.

I was spot on with my team selection, although I didn't forsee Wenger using Diaby on the left wing. Diaby was replaced after an hour and received a standing ovation from the travelling Arsenal faithful. Denilson played well in the centre of midfield, which is his preferred position.

My team selection for this game:

Baptista, Aliadiere



Walcott, Diaby, Fabregas, Denilson



Traore, Senderos, Toure, Hoyte



Almunia


Subs: Poom, Eboue, Randall, Flamini, Hleb


Unavailable: Gallas, Ljungberg, van Persie and Djourou.

Now Wenger may have to add Hleb, Eboue and Aliadiere to the unavailable list.

Long-term issues: I wonder if Wenger will bring out the big guns if Arsenal need to get a result in the return fixture at the Grove? I would prefer him to stay true to his youth policy in the Carling Cup, but if breaking with tradition is the only way he can assure Arsenal of a spot in the final, then so be it.

Wenger has suggested that "most of them will play next week", which is good to hear. I think it would be remarkable if the young guns made it to the final and they deserve the opportunity to play in the return leg.

Prediction: Seven Sisters 1 Arsenal 2
Score: Seven Sisters 2 Arsenal 2